Business cycle dating committee members

Our measure of real personal income less transfers peaked in December 2007, displayed a zig-zag pattern from then until June 2008 at levels slightly below the December 2007 peak, and has generally declined since June.

Third, the government does not publish a price index corresponding to the coverage of the measure.

The committee uses the same interpolated GDP deflator as discussed above.

Payroll employment, the number of filled jobs in the economy based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' large survey of employers, reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined in every month since then.

An alternative measure of employment, measured by the BLS's household survey, reached a peak in November 2007, declined early in 2008, expanded temporarily in April to a level below its November 2007 peak, and has declined in every month since April 2008.

The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession.

A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.

Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months.

The committee's primary role is to maintain a monthly chronology of the business cycle.

In concept, the two should be the same, because sales of products generate income for producers and workers equal to the value of the sales.

However, because the measurement on the product and income sides proceeds somewhat independently, the two actual measures differ by a statistical discrepancy.

It is an imperfect measure of the production of goods and services for at least three reasons. Second, it does not deduct the sales of imported goods.

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